Matchförutsägelse: Aster.Aries - DAWN | Dota 2

We've reached the final game day of DPC 2023: China Upper Division. By the way, it will be the last one not only in China: the first round of the DPC will end with fights in China.

Aster.Aries and Team DAWN will open the final tour. An enchanting match for such an event, but as it is.

Both teams completely and completely failed the first round. Both teams have already left the competition and do not claim anything.

However, there is still a difference between the teams, and quite a big one. So, for example, Aster.Aries several times had the opportunity to cling to points within the division, but each time they stumbled: now they are on the 7th line of the table with statistics 0-6, but 4 maps won.

DAWN are in the position below. They sat firmly on the last line of the standings, but unlike Aries, they did not win a single map.

We are trying to figure out which of the teams will take the series and get prestige points.

Aster.Aries form

Let's start the analysis of the duel with the analysis of the game form of Aster.Aries. They will appear as the favorite of the meeting in this fight.

Aries is completely trusted by the bookmakers. The chance of their victory is estimated by the coefficient in the region of 1.1. It looks pretty absurd, but that's how it is.

Where else can Aries play as a favorite, if not here. Although the teams are nominally in the same boat, the difference in the level of play is visible to the naked eye, as we mentioned above.

Composition of Aster.Aries

I assume that the phantom success of the Aries this season is directly related to their line-up. Before the start of the season, they modernized it by adding experienced performers.

Aster.Aries players

• Ulu
• White_Album
• ss
• TK
• redpanda

For “experience”, and if you want expertise, Album and Panda were responsible, but not lucky. The roster definitely has potential, but I'm afraid after a very relegation to the second division, serious changes will come to the team.

Aster.Aries Performance

The main achievement of the team is the preservation of the slot in the top division of the DPC. There was an emphasis on this and in the new season the prospects have not changed.

We started the year with a performance at the Intel World Open Beijing, where we took the TOP-8. Further, a qualitative breakthrough in the second division of China and a passage to the elite league.

In the third round, playing in the top division for the first time in the history of the academic team, Aster.Aries managed to cling to the TOP-6, thereby retaining their place for the 2023 season.

There was no more to be expected. The team failed the subsequent qualifications for ESL One Malaysia 2022.

Participated in The International 2022: China Qualifier, where they were not particularly noticeable. There, the team lost to IG with a score of 1-2 at the TOP-6 stage, where it stayed.

In the first match of DPC 2023, Aster.Aries faced Xtreme Gaming. Contrary to expectations, Aries managed to impose a fight on Xtreme and looked good, although they lost.

What followed was no easier. Aster.Aries played against PSG.LGD, naturally losing with a score of 0-2, without much chance of winning.

The hellish calendar continued with the match against Team Aster. In a game against their parent organization, the Aries got hooked on the second map and led the net for a long time, but a few stupid and sometimes weird moments ended up 0-2.

Next, Aries waited for Invictus Gaming. In that match, the youth team of Aster acted as a favorite, but could not put the squeeze on, despite the card taken from the opponent.

A similar situation happened in the match against the Knights. Aries again took the map, but once again crashed in the series.

Before this game, Aster.Aries met with EHOME. The team again showed perseverance, but failed to take the series: 1-2 in favor of EHOME and relegation of Aries to the second division.

Heroes Aster.Aries

Played in Chinese tradition. Among the most selected characters: Death Prophet (4 matches, 25% wins), Ember Spirit (3 matches, 66% wins), Marci (3 matches, 33% wins).

Chen and Clockwerk have an ideal win rate, but too small a selection. Both have 2 games and 2 wins.

Form DAWN

Let's move on to dessert. DAWN will play as an outsider in this match, otherwise it could not be.

The bookmaker was buried by DAWN by nailing the coffin. The team's chance of winning is estimated at a factor of around 4.

It would seem 4 yes on DAWN this season. It's a holiday, it's a chance. Here it is important to understand that the coefficient is around 4 against the worst (after DAWN themselves, of course) team.

Line-up DAWN

The DAWN roster showed its potential and it was not enough to take at least a card. They played against serious opponents and it seems like the Aries can become the very straw, clinging to which they can slightly soften the flight to the second division, but for this you need to start playing.

DAWN players

• idc
• ex
• Son Goku
• Docres
• Ms

I'm afraid it's impossible to do a monumental work on the bugs in two days, and therefore you should not wait for revelations from DAWN. They should not pop up under the DPC.

DAWN Performance

Appearing virtually out of nowhere (we'll omit MOON Studio level tournaments for now), DAWN managed to play only one series as part of DPC 2023. It was held against PSG.LGD and ended accordingly.

The Chinese grand, having lost three players of the golden squad, literally did not feel the opponent. Two maps ended in 40 minutes, and during this time DAWN managed to get 7 kills.

In the second match, DAWN met EHOME. The team fought, it's worth paying tribute, but the result was the same - 2-0 not in favor of DAWN.

The third duel followed an identical scenario. DAWN lost to Invictus Gaming without a single chance.

Groundhog Day continued in the next series, but with a different opponent. They were Team Aster, who swept away their opponents in 46 minutes in total.

After Aster, Xtreme Gaming took over DAWN. Result: two 20's each and DAWN's unprincipled departure.

In the penultimate match they played against the Knights. Nothing new, except that on the first map the “knights” had to tinker a little more than 40 minutes.

Heroes DAWN

DAWN tried to take opponents as a standard, though not without some interesting things. Most often in patch 7.32, the team chooses Mirana (16 games, 50% wins), Lich (11 matches, 36% wins), Tusk (11 matches, 36% wins), Marci (10 games, 30% wins).

Note that the win rate of the characters draws on the fact that clubs participate in local tournaments of the Moon Studio level and others. Nothing works on DPC.

History of personal confrontations

Previously, the teams did not intersect with each other. This match will be their first confrontation in official matches.

Match outcome

In this duel, I expect the triumph of justice. Aries should take the series.

The team that wins maps from Xtreme, Knights and EHOME should eat opponents like DAWN. It is possible that the moral component of the team will come into play, which is not at the highest level after relegation to the second division, but in terms of game parameters, Aries is better in all aspects.

Result: Aries win with a score of 2-0.