Matchförutsägelse: Heroic - sAw | CS2 (CS:GO)

In one of the first confrontations within the IEM Road to Rio 2022 Europe RMR B, teams such as Heroic and SAW will face each other. Experts from bookmakers are sure that Heroic will win with a probability of 72%, which translates into a coefficient of 1.30 on their victory. So is it worth betting just to win, or can you choose some other alternative market that will not only have a relatively low risk, but also a higher profit? We will get the answer during the analysis of the state of the commands.

Heroic Game Uniform

The Danes from Heroic are currently on the 12th line in the world ranking from HLTV. The team has recently completed its participation in another major tournament, ESL Pro League Season 16 with a prize pool of $825,000. There, the team performed quite well in the group stage and was able to get through to the playoffs. As a result, the roster stopped one step away from reaching the quarterfinals and completed its participation in the event, taking 9-12th place in the standings. Although the roster was defeated in the debut duel against MOUZ, in the next four matches he won. ENCE, Complexity Gaming, HEET and even Astralis couldn't beat Heroic. The players from Natus Vincere turned out to be able to do this, who, in turn, managed to reach the quarterfinals and take 5-8th place in the event.

Heroic show the best performances on two maps: Ancient and Nuke. In the first case, their win rate is 75%, and in the second, 71.4%. On Inferno, under certain circumstances, they can also win more often than in the case of Overpass, Mirage, Vertigo and Dust 2, however, 57.1% of triumphs is not a very good indicator. On the rest of the battlefields, it is better for them not to play, since at best they win there with a probability of 33%, and on Vertigo and Dust 2 their win rate is 25% and 0%.

History of recent Heroic meetings

ESL Pro League Season 16

• Heroic 1-2 Natus Vincere
• Heroic 2-1 Astralis
• Heroic 2-1 HEET
• Heroic 2-0 Complexity Gaming
• Heroic 2-0 ENCE
• Heroic 0-2 MOUZ

Heroic Card Statistics

• Ancient (4 cards) - 75%
• Nuke (7 cards) - 71.4%
• Inferno (7 cards) - 57.1%
• Overpass (6 cards) - 33.3%
• Mirage (3 cards) - 33.3%
• Vertigo (4 cards) - 25%
• Dust 2 (1 card) - 0%

SAW Game Uniform

SAW are far from their next opponents in almost every way. The team is inferior in terms of game form, in general, the level of play is much lower than that of Heroic, and the 55th place proves that the above is not just speculation.

In September, the Portuguese team took part in two events. The team took second place in the closed qualifiers for Flow FiReLEAGUE 2022, stopping a step away from getting an invite to the main event, and is still playing at Elisa Invitational Fall 2022. The level of their opponents leaves much to be desired. The team overcame ECSTATIC and EYEBALLERS in the last matches, could not beat Sprout.

But as for the approach to choosing cards, everything is different here. The team, like Heroic, likes to play on Ancient and has the best performance there in the form of 85.7% of wins over 7 maps played. In addition, SAWs, like Heroic, can also play on Nuke, where they win 80% of the time. They also perform well at Dust 2, where the win rate is 71.4%. But on Overpass, Vertigo and Inferno, they are doing much worse, and therefore it is better for the Portuguese to avoid these cards.

SAW match history

Elisa Invitational Fall 2022

• SAW 2-0 ECSTATIC
• SAW 1-2 Sprout
• SAW 2-1 EYEBALLERS

Flow FiReLEAGUE 2022 Europe Closed Qualifier

• SAW 1-2 MASONIC
• SAW 2-0 Sprout
• SAW 2-0 Apex

SAW Map Statistics

• Ancient (7 cards) - 85.7%
• Nuke (5 cards) - 80%
• Dust 2 (7 cards) - 71.4%
• Overpass (2 cards) - 50%
• Vertigo (7 cards) - 42.9%
• Inferno (5 cards) - 40%

Conclusion

Based on what we see, SAW are very likely to lose, but I am haunted by the fact that they play on the same maps as Heroic, and the performance is even better than in the case of the Danes. This, of course, can be explained by the fact that the team plays with weaker opponents, however, if the Portuguese perform well on Ancient and Nuke, then they can take a large number of rounds. This is what we can use.

The bookmakers offer us +6.5 rounds Handicap and +5.5 rounds in favor of SAW with odds of 1.50 and 1.68. In the first case, the Portuguese team will have to take 10 rounds, and in the second - 11. Both of them are possible in principle, but I would still pay attention to the Handicap +6.5 rounds. I wouldn't want to rule out Handicap -2.5 rounds on Heroic, as they can take this game out purely on skill. Both proposed options are not mutually exclusive and imply a victory for Heroic with a score of 16-10, 16-11, 16-12 and 16-13.

Those who don't like risk should still stick with Heroic winning at 1.30 odds or Handicap -2.5 rounds on them at 1.45 odds. Risk takers, in turn, can try their luck on Handicap +6.5 or Handicap +5.5 rounds in favor of SAW with odds of 1.50 and 1.68. I like the +6.5 Handicap option the most.

All this only makes sense if SAW and Heroic are playing on Ancient, Nuke or Dust 2 maps. In other cases, it is better to bet on Heroic Handicap -2.5 rounds with odds of 1.45.

Final bet: Handicap +6.5 rounds on SAW at odds of 1.50