On August 31, as part of one of the matches of the ESL Challenger League Season 42 North America, such teams as Detonate and BHOP will play against each other. The teams are in approximately the same weight category and it is worth considering in more detail the game form of these teams in order to understand whether it is worth betting on the favorite to win.
Experts from bookmakers give odds of 1.45 to win BHOP. This means that according to their assumptions, the probability of the favorite winning is 64%, which is not too much for CS:GO, and even more so for this type of scene.
Game form Detonate
Detonate are on the 127th place in the rating from HLTV. The team consists of players I don't know who don't have enough experience to play in tournaments of a higher echelon. In August, the roster took part in only two matches of the first open qualifier for IEM Road to Rio 2022 North America. In one of those fights, Detonate beat BHOP 16-14, which I'll pay special attention to later, and they also failed to take down Strife, losing 11-16 against them.
Speaking of the map pool, one cannot fail to note the success of the players on the Nuke and Inferno maps. Both there and there, the team has a win rate of 100%. However, in the case of Nuke, only 2 cards were played, and with Inferno, the situation is even worse - only 1 card was played by players from Detonate.
On Dust 2, the team shows a more tolerable result and in 3 matches played, the team won 2 wins, which indicates a win rate of 66.7%. The team played on Mirage most often and for 5 maps the percentage of wins is 60.0%. The weakest maps are Overpass and Vertigo - 50.0% and 0.0% of wins with 4 and 2 maps played, respectively.
History of recent meetings Detonate
IEM Road to Rio 2022 North America Open Qualifier 1
Detonate 11-16 Strife
Detonate 16-14 BHOP
Best Detonate Maps
Nuke (2 cards) - 100.0%
Inferno (1 card) - 100.0%
Dust 2 (3 cards) - 66.7%
Mirage (5 cards) - 60.0%
Overpass (4 cards) - 50.0%
Vertigo (2 cards) - 0.0%
BHOP Game Uniform
BHOP are ranked 118th in the HLTV world rankings, and the roster consists of players who, to put it mildly, are not very famous yet. The playing form of the team leaves much to be desired and it is worth paying special attention to the fact that the team took part in only 2 matches in August. Their last meeting took place a couple of weeks ago.
In the first confrontation, the team played against timbermen at ESEA Summer 2022 Cash Cup 4 North America and was defeated with a score of 6-16. In the second match, the team almost beat Detonate and were defeated with a score of 14-16. The meeting, by the way, was played on Nuke, which, apparently, is loved by the players from Detonate, who so far have a 100% win rate there.
BHOP is loved by Vertigo and Inferno, and the percentage of wins there is 100.0% and 75.0%, respectively, with 2 and 4 maps played at the same time. Most often, the team played on Overpass, but they are not very good at it. Otherwise, their win rate there would have been over 40.0%. Mirage and Nuke are the main weakness of BHOP.
BHOP match history
IEM Road to Rio 2022 North America Open Qualifier 1
BHOP 14-16 Detonate
ESEA Summer 2022 Cash Cup 4 North America
BHOP 6-16 timbermen
Best BHOP Cards
Vertigo - 100.0%
Inferno - 75.0%
Overpass - 40.0%
Mirage - 33.3%
Nuke - 0.0%
Conclusion
Looking at the pool of teams and the history of their confrontations, the thought comes to my mind that BHOP are called the favorites of this meeting for nothing. In my opinion, Detonate is more worthy of being called here as a favorite. The team, firstly, beat its opponent two weeks ago, and secondly, the mappool is on the side of the same Detonate. Come play again Nuke? Okay, Detonate, they can repeat what happened two weeks ago. BHOP want to play on Inferno? Also great, Detonate have 100.0% win rate there. Maybe BHOP will want to choose Vertigo? They will, but at the first stage of choosing Detonate cards, they will most likely stop this desire and ban Vertigo. On the rest of the maps, the statistics are on the Detonate side.
In this case, I do not recommend using additional markets, and even more so, betting on the correct account.
More save bettors will benefit from the +1.5 card Handicap market in favor of Detonate at odds of 1.52, and those who are convinced by my arguments regarding my favorite can also bet on Detonate to win at odds of 2.62. Both options are pretty good, but +1.5 cards Handicap in favor of Detonate looks less risky.
Final bet: Handicap +1.5 cards in favor of Detonate with odds of 1.52
