The main matches of the top division in Western Europe are over, but we'll have to wait for high-quality DotA. As part of DPC 2023: WEU Upper Division, there will be replays for the remaining 2 tickets to Lima Major 2023.
There are 3 contenders for two slots at once. Among them are Tundra Esports and OG, who will open the round-robin of replays and Entity.
Although Tundra Esports and OG played the regular season with 4-3 statistics, the teams have different performance. The former played confidently at the start of the season, while OG played rather chaotically.
We figure out which team will win the first match of the cycle and one step closer to getting into the TOP-4.
Tundra Esports Uniform
We open the analytics of replays in Western Europe with the analysis of the Tundra Esports match. The current world champions will play here as favorites.
Chance to win Tundra is estimated by odds around 1.8. The whole is a neat figure, which does not allow us to confidently declare the Tundra the winner of the match.
You can't help but agree with the bookmakers. Tundra somehow turned too abruptly from a top team capable of taking out their rivals into a team that hardly outplays the weakest representatives of the division.
Tundra Esports roster
I don’t presume to judge, but perhaps the matter here is in the Tundra Esports roster. It is possible that the performers “caught a star” after winning the championship at The International 2022.
Tundra Esports Players
The winners of last season's main tournament started losing suspiciously sharply. However, such a performance can be considered logical, because all teams are especially carefully preparing for an opponent of the Tundra level, knowing what they are capable of.
Tundra Esports performance
Tundra Esports got to The International 2022 from the 9th place in the DPC table. All thanks to a landmark performance during the season.
The team took the TOP-3 at the DPC WEU 2021/2022 Tour 1: Division 1, after which they entered only the TOP-4 at the regional finals without earning DPC points.
The second round in the regional league did not start much better: Tundra took 4th place at home, which did not bring much DPC points, but gave something much more important - a ticket to ESL One Stockholm. At the first real Major of the year, Tundra Esports took third place.
Inspired by getting into the TOP-3 at ESL One Stockholm, Tundra approached the third round of the DPC with renewed vigor, where, unlike the previous ones, they shone. The first place in the regional league of Western Europe allowed the Saksa team to advance to the second Major of the year.
The team took TOP-16 at the second major tournament, which, after TOP-8 at the commercial Riyadh Master, seriously reduced faith in the club at the upcoming The International.
The International 2022 itself turned out to be phenomenally easy for Tundra Esports. Having given away only a few cards during the event, the team made it to the grand final, where they finished Team Secret with a score of 3-0 without much difficulty.
Before the start of DPC 2022/2022: WEU Upper Division - Winter Tour, the team took a well-deserved vacation.
The rest did not prevent the team from debuting at DPC 2023 with an easy victory. Tundra dealt with OG with a score of 2-0.
After OG, Tundra Esports played against Nigma Galaxy, where for the first time since The International they showed weakness, giving away a map to weak opponents this season.
Further - even more interesting. On the way Tundra became Team Liquid, which outplayed the reigning world champions with a score of 2-0.
The match against Into The Breach turned out to be problematic. The newcomers of the top division managed to take the map from the mastodons of the world DotA.
After a viscous series with ITB Tundra met with Team Secret. There the champions of The International 2022 rested: 2-0 in favor of Tundra.
Before the match with Gladiators, Tundra Esports played Entity. The problems that I mentioned above were revealed and Tundra stumbled, seemingly out of the blue, losing by a far from peak Entity with a score of 1-2.
In their last match of the regular season, Tundra faced the Gaimin Gladiators. The latter sent Tundr to replays, closing the series with a score of 2-0 without much chance.
Heroes Tundra Esports
The most selected Tundra character is Rubick, appreciated by the world champions. He has appeared 4 times and has a perfect win rate.
In addition, another popular hero, Tusk, appeared 4 times. However, he still lost one game.
The signature Beastmaster 33 performed even worse. The character was chosen 4 times and won 2 matches.
We continue the review of the upcoming match with an analysis of the game form of OG. They will play as an outsider in this fight.
The bookmaker is not pushing OG back much. The team's chance of winning is estimated by a coefficient around 1.9.
This figure is a product of OG's performance and the form of their opponents. In fact, we are waiting for parity.
It's no wonder that OG didn't manage to easily climb into the TOP-4 and guarantee themselves a ticket to the first Major of the season. At the beginning of the season, the team changed players, and at the same time radically revised their approach to the game.
The passage of OG to the Major is desirable for the same reason. It is interesting to see how the team will look on the international stage within the framework of a large arena with a playstyle different from last year.
However, I think this will be fine. The main characters of OG are in place, and bzm, for example, is completely fierce.
Last season, the surviving backbone of OG managed to prove itself both in the regional league and beyond. OG took TOP-4 at DPC WEU 2021/2022 Tour 1: Division 1, 3rd at DPC WEU 2021/2022 Tour 1: Regional Final.
In the second round, Misha's team won the DPC WEU 2021/2022 Tour 2: Division 1, after which they played at ESL One Stockholm, the first major of OG's new look.
In Sweden, the young generation of the club of the two-time world champion showed the pinnacle of playing skills, taking the TOP-1. After that, the performance dropped a little.
The team took TOP-3 at DPC WEU 2021/2022 Tour 3: DIvision 1, Riyadh Masters 2022, 4th place at PGL Arlington Major 2022 season 2, and then won ESL One Malaysia.
OG went to The International 2022 as the first team in Europe, but they turned out to be almost the last. The team reached the TOP-8, which was a good result. However, Puppey has it better.
In the new season, OG made their debut in a match against the reigning world champions. Tundra, thanks to their playstyle and all sorts of DKs and Beastmasters, outplayed OG quite easily with a score of 2-0.
On the next tour, OG met Team Secret. The last ones this season are desperately bad, which logically led to the failure of Puppey and the score 0-2 against OG.
Then OG played against Gaimin Gladiators. Contrary to expectations, OG turned out to be stronger than Gladiators (2-0), who are looking pretty good this season.
In the next series, OG met with Into The Breach. The latter tried to swoop in, picking Riki + Furion and other meta heroes, but OG outclassed the opponents twice by picking Lina for Yuragi.
Later, Mish's team outplayed Entity. The match lasted 3 maps, and thanks to Broodmother + Tiny + Sniper at the matchpoint, OG managed to pick up the necessary points.
However, in the next series they lost them. Moreover, they lost out of the blue, losing to Nigma Galaxy, who turned on at the last moment, with a score of 1-2.
OG got into tiebreakers after the game with Team Liquid. The best team in Europe in the winter tour beat OG with a score of 2-1, although the latter imposed a serious fight.
The most frequent guest in OG picks at DPC 2023: WEU Upper Division - Lina. The character was chosen 5 times and won in 4 matches.
Tiny remains the most successful hero. He appeared in 4 fights and won all games.
They also play as Tusk (4 games, 75% win rate), Snapfire (4 matches, 50% win rate), Death Prophet (4 matches, 50% win rate), Rubick (4 games, 50% win rate).
History of personal confrontations
Tundra and OG opened the new season in the debut match of DPC 2023: WEU Upper Division. Then Tundra were a few goals higher and closed the series with no chances with a score of 2-0.
In this confrontation, I want to see an equal game. There are several prerequisites for this, including dubious stability during the season, but the intuition suggests taking the total under 2.5.
I think the teams managed to analyze the mistakes and prepare for the tiebreakers in three days. In this regard, Tundra has an advantage, as they are more experienced.
Outcome: total under 2.5.
Enligt ledande bookmakers förutsägelser är laget Tundra Esports favoriten med genomsnittliga odds 1.397 för tillfället. Bookmakers anser att OG är matchens outsider med odds på en seger på summan av cirka 6.55.
Vad lagets prestationsstatistik säger
|Senaste matcherna||Tundra Esports||OG|
|5 matcher (vinster)||2||3|
|10 matcher (vinster)||7||5|
Det kommer också att vara nödvändigt att nämna historien om möten ansikte mot ansikte mellan motståndarna. Deltagarna i striden före mötet spelade 17 matcher med varandra. Och Tundra Esports vann 10 gånger medan OG på motsvarande sätt blev vinnaren 7 gånger.
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