We are looking at the Last Chance Qualifier for The International 2022. We are opening Group B with a match between Xtreme Gaming and Team Liquid.
In the first round of group B we are waiting for such a duel. The atmosphere of The International is already here, can you feel it?
Confrontation of the giants of the Western DotA against the star Chinese. I think this start of group B will put the teams on the right vibe and we will see very peppy matches throughout the LCQ stage and beyond.
We figure out who will be stronger in the battle of contenders for victory and earn the first points on the LCQ.
Xtreme Gaming Uniform
Xtreme Gaming will play as the favorite in this match. The Chinese club's chance of winning is estimated at around 2.3.
Such a figure for bo2 is quite a natural thing. With two strong and virtually equal teams, the outcome in the form of a draw is much more likely.
Speaking of Xtreme Gaming, one cannot but recall the “broken season” of Chinese stars. Xtreme began its formation in December last year, when the backbone of future giants was assembled.
For the season, the team took 2nd place at the Intel World Open Beijing and then won the OGA Dota PIT Season 6: China. All this was just preparation for the rating season.
In the elite Chinese league Xtreme, for obvious reasons, they felt at home. In the first draw, they took 2nd place, after which they finished in 3rd place in the DPC CN 2021/2022 Tour 2: Regional Final.
The next round brought Xtreme 3rd place and a ticket to the Arlington Major, but Xtreme did not get there due to technical reasons. There is a feeling that if they played the American Major in good spirits and health, they could have directly entered the group stage, bypassing the LCQ qualifiers and other intermediate stages, but this did not happen.
At the qualifiers for The International Xtreme, they lost to RNG in the final with a crushing score of 0-3. This fight could shake XG's confidence, but I think the Chinese discipline will do its job and they will come to the LCQ fully armed
Xtreme Gaming Roster
- lou
- paparazi
- old eLeVeN
- Pyw
- Dy
The youngest and “greenest” player Xtreme lou slowly fits into the company of veterans of the Chinese scene. It's not worth talking about the four Paparazi, old eLeVeN, Pyw and Dy.
Xtreme Gaming Heroes
Xtreme's most picked heroes are: Earth Spirit (6 matches, 50% win rate), Death Prophet (4 matches, 100% win rate), Lina (4 matches, 75% win rate), Omniknight (4 matches, 75% win rate), Marci and Shadow Fiend (4 matches each and 50% win rate).
Form Team Liquid
In the status of catching up, Team Liquid will suit this match. The chance of their victory is estimated by a coefficient in the region of 4.
Again, keep in mind the bo2 format, where it is difficult to predict the victory of one of the teams in an equal match. The most likely outcome is a draw, but we'll get to that while we have Team Liquid.
From the formidable Liquid last season, the “liquids” have turned into middling ones. Taking second place at the first regional finals in Western Europe, Liquid finished in 3rd place in the second round and went to the Stockholm Major in the status of a contender for the TOP-8 at least.
In fact, Liquid took the TOP-9-12, after which they frankly fell down. In the home league, “Liquid” continued to play well and steadily climbed to the first positions, as in the example of DPC Weu 2021/2022 Tour 3: Division 1, where Liquid finished the regular season in 2nd place.
International events, both commercial and ranked, were not given to Liquid at all: TOP-10 at Riyadh Masters, TOP-9-12 at PGL Arlington Major 2022, TOP-11-12 at ESL One Malaysia 2022. Doesn't look like a game teams vying for a direct ticket to the TI 2022 group stage.
At the qualifiers for the main tournament of the year, we were once again convinced that Liquid is not in the best condition now. They placed 3rd in the qualifiers.
Team Liquid roster
- MATUMBAMAN
- miCKe
- zai
- Boxi
- iNSaNiA
The team does not see synergy between the backbone of miCKe, Boxi, iNSaNiA and TI 10 bronze medalists zai and MATU who came at the end of 2021. The latter will end his career after The International 2022, which suggests that the DotA veteran is sufficiently motivated.
Heroes Team Liquid
In their picks, Liquid focuses on Death Prophet (4 matches, 75% wins), Mars (4 matches, 50% wins), Slark (3 matches, 66% wins), Vengeful Spirit (3 matches, 66% wins), Marci and Pudge (3 matches, 66% of wins).
History of personal confrontations
Previously, the teams did not play each other in official matches. This fight will be the debut face-to-face confrontation between the teams.
Match outcome
As I mentioned at the beginning of the analysis, most likely here we are waiting for an exchange of cards. The fact is that on paper, Liquid look faded, but they managed to play a lot this season, unwind in matches against teams from different regions, while Xtreme was boiling in their pot.
The key to the success of the teams will be formed on the peaks, and Xtreme has the advantage here. They play their own meta with an aggressive 4-man and an emphasis on the mid lane. Liquid, with the advent of zai and MATU, moved to the canon, which is why their drafts rarely have a place for the author's handwriting.
Here I am for a draw, but I would look at the drafts. If Xtreme gets a conditional Earthshaker or Earth Spirit, they can stomp two of 20, but so far it's a draw.
Outcome: draw.
