We continue to review the group stage of LEC Winter 2023 with an analysis of quartet B. MAD Lions and Astralis will be the first of the four to fight for a place in the playoffs of the winter season of the European region.
MAD Lions made it to the group stages from second place in the regular season. The team finished it with a score of 7-2, sharing the championship with Team Vitality.
Astralis have a diametrically opposite situation. The team reached the groups from the last place of the regular season with 3 wins and 6 losses.
We are looking into whether Astralis are able to impose a fight on a more status opponent and surprise themselves in the first match of the LEC Winter 2023 group stage.
Form M.A.D. Lions
Let's start the review of the match with the analysis of MAD Lions game form. “Lions” will approach the duel in the status of an absolute favorite.
The bookmakers are unequivocally loyal to MAD Lions. The chance of winning the title European team is estimated by the odds around 1.1.
Such a devastating pre-match state of affairs is caused by the performance of MAD Lions. The Lions played the regular season in their own way, leaving behind almost all the tops of the season.
MAD Lions line-up
Last but not least, it was possible to achieve impressive heights thanks to an experienced squad that received a breath of fresh air in the 2023 off-season. So far, everything is working well, although not without minor blunders.
MAD Lions players
- Chasy
- Elyoya
- Nisqy
- Carzzy
- Hylissang
The strong trio of Chasy, Elyoya and Nisqy was complemented by Carzzy and Hyilssang. Both players have experience playing in top teams: Carzzy played for Vitality, and Hylissang was a player for Fantic, who left LEC Winter 2023 prematurely.
MAD Lions Performance
The first game week of MAD Lions started well. The team won 2 matches out of 3 played:
- 1-0 victory over SK Gaming
- 1-0 victory over Astralis
- Lost to Vitality 0-1
It was not possible to beat only Vitality, which, however, almost no one can beat. Where they were supposed to pick up points, they took them.
The second week, according to the standard, had 3 matches. MAD Lions again held the game segment with a score of 2-1:
- Victory over EXCEL with a score of 1-0
- Victory over KOI with a score of 1-0
- Lost to BDS 0-1
In general, no revelations. We lost to BDS, which showed a rather vigorous League this season, and therefore it is definitely not worth falling into despair because of this.
The final week went well for MAD Lions. The team finished the stage with their heads held high:
- 1-0 victory over Fnatic
- 1-0 victory over Team Heretics
- 1-0 victory over G2 Esports
A streak of three victories allowed MAD Lions to break into the TOP-1 and earn respect before the start of the group stage. However, the team had no problems with the latter before.
MAD Lions Champions
Fiora (2 matches, 100% of wins) and KSante (2 matches, 50% of wins) appeared in the top of MAD Lions more often than others. They also took Renekton (1 game, 100% wins) and Gnar (1 game and that loss).
In the forest, Sejuani is popular (3 matches, 66% of wins). Next up is Wukong with 2 appearances and a 50% win rate, and then there was Maokai who won his only match.
On the central line, Viktor (1-1) and Akali (1-1) have 2 matches each. Azir and Sylas won their matches.
Of the shooters, Varus appeared most often (3 matches, 66% of wins). Lucian picked 2 times (1-1) and picked Sivir one more time (1-0).
Thresh (1-1), Lulu (1-1) got to the shooter more often than others. Nami and Ashe, who appeared 1 time each, won their matches.
Astralis shape
Let's continue the analysis of the match with an overview of Astralis' form. The team in this match will appear before us in the status of an underdog.
It is not difficult to predict the fate of Astralis in this fight. The bookies look impassively at their chances in the upcoming match and give odds of around 6 to win.
This figure looks quite authentic. Astralis already jumped a little higher than their heads, getting here because at the end of the regular season, concerns began to arise regarding their ability to pass the first stage.
Astralis squad
For the Astralis roster, the passage to the group stage is already an indicator. Young performers need experience and will get it here, but one should not hope for the further participation of the Danish club in the race.
Astralis players
- Finn
- 113
- Dajor
- Kobbe
- JeongHoon
I do not want to single out one of the five. The strength of Astralis is not in individual performance, but rather in team synergy. The problem here lies in the similarly high numbers from MAD Lions.
Astralis Performance
The Danish club started the first week badly. The team lost all their matches and did not have to wait for any kind of enlightenment in their game:
- Lost to Team Heretics 0-1
- Lost to MAD Lions 0-1
- Lost to G2 Esports 0-1
Having played against the big favorites, Astralis entered the second week. No less formidable rivals were waiting for them there, but the situation was partially corrected:
- Lost to Vitality 0-1
- Lost to BDS 0-1
- Victory over EXCEL with a score of 1-0
The win against EXCEL breathed life into Astralis and brought back hope for success in future games. They got it the next week when they finished the tour with a score of 2-1:
- 1-0 victory over BDS
- 1-0 victory over Fnatic
- Lost by KOI 0-1
Two victories allowed Astralis to advance to the group stage. Unfortunately for Astralis, they ended up in Group B.
Astralis Champions
Astralis tops KSante (3 matches, 0 win%), Fiora (1 game, 0 wins), Aatrox (1 game, 0 wins). The appearance of Gnar and Gangplank in the picks (1 win in 1 game) became a success.
Of the junglers, Viego (3 games, 0% wins), Sejuani (2 matches, 50% wins), Jarvan IV (1 match, 0% wins) popped up most often. It is best to play for Trundl (2 matches, 2 wins).
Mid lane: Sylas (3 games, 2 wins), Ryze (2 matches, 50% wins), Syndra (2 appearances, 0 wins), Twisted Fate (1 match, 0% wins).
The bot had the largest number of experiments. These are Caytlin and Xayah and Ezrael, as well as Zeri and Lucian. Out of the pool, 2 matches were won by Lucian, 1 by Ezreal.
A similar situation with supports. There was enough variety here: Ashe (2 games, 0 wins), Bard, Lux, Yummi and Nami. The latter won two games in conjunction with Lucian. Meta Karma also won.
History of personal confrontations
Previously, the teams played each other in the second round of the first group week of the LEC 2023 Winter - Stage 1. The Lions took 29 minutes to close the series, and Nisqy with his Syndr became the main star.
Match outcome
I don't see any outs for Astralis in this fight. The teams have already met with each other in the regular season, where the “lions” closed their counterparts without a chance.
In this series, everything speaks in favor of MAD Lions and they should not miss a victory in such a match, since they will continue to play against G2 Esports and BDS, which are much stronger than Astralis.
Result: MAD Lions win 2-0.
